The 18th Lok Sabha Election began from Saturday. This year, election is to be conducted in 7 phases and it ends on 1st June. The Election result will come out on 4th June.
On 19th April, the voting happened from Udhampur to Kanyakumari and Ganganagar to Itanagar.
The phase comprises of 102 constituencies in 17 states and 4 Union Territories. This phase is the largest phase in the 7-phase election, the only one with 100+ seats up for voting.
The ruling BJP is aiming for a hat-trick and in the opposition, under INDIA bloc, the target is to stop BJP.
Let us discuss the importance of 1st phase and the probable chances of winning both for NDA and INDIA.
NDA
Can protect: – 43 seats, including
- 11 out of 12 in Rajasthan
- 5 out of 6 in Madhya Pradesh
- 5 in Uttarakhand
- All 4 in Bihar
- 4 out of 5 in Maharashtra
- 3 out of 8 in West UP
- All 3 in West Bengal
In 2019, 36 out of 43 seats were won by BJP, 2 by LJP and 1 each by Sena (Shinde), JD(U) and NE allies.
Can gain: – Tamil Nadu where no current alliance partners got seats in 2019. UP, where it will hope a better result than last year against SP-BSP. And the lone seats in Chhattisgarh, Puducherry, Andaman and Lakshadweep.
INDIA
Can protect: – 48 seats, including
- 38 of 39 in Tamil Nadu
- 2 out of 8 in Uttar Pradesh
- 1 each in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Meghalaya, Pondicherry, Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep.
[Out of 48 seats in 2019, 24 were won by DMK, 14 by Cong, 4 by Left Parties, 2 by SP and 1 each by VCK, IUML, NCP and RLP which is a new rally.]
Can gain: – Rajasthan where it won 1 out of 12 seats, whereas in UP where all hope to gain from the farmer protests, but on the other hand in Bihar where it had none out of 4 and Manipur was facing some ethnic strife.
[EXCEPTION OF ASSAM – 5 out of 14 seats in Assam go to polls but today it is not possible to categorize seats as having been won any party in the last election. That is because seats boundaries have been withdrawn last time. In the broad area, mainly in upper Assam, BJP was dominant last time with Gaurav Gogoi, the lone Cong winner from Kaliabor seat.]
A look at important seats and candidates up for polls in 1st phase
Nagpur (Maharashtra)
Candidates’ Name:
- Nitin Gadkari (BJP)
- Vikas Thakre (Cong/INDIA)
Nitin Gadkari who turned the tide for BJP in this former Cong bastion. The Union Minister for highways won the seat from Nagpur in 2014. In 2019, Gadkari beat the state Cong chief Nana Patole by lower victory margin. That time Cong has fielded local boy Vikas Thakre but with his appeal cutting across caste, Gadkari starts as favourite again.
Chennai South (Tamil Nadu)
Candidates’ Name: –
- T Thangapandian (DMK)
- T Soundaranjan (BJP)
- T Jayarvadan (ADMK)
In Tamil Nadu, the spotlight is brightest and can be explaining why Tamilsai Soundarajan quit as Telangana as well as Pondicherry governor. Why ADMK risked charges of dynasty politics to field Chennai’s strongman D Jayakumar’s son J Jayavardan. The seat which has the highest per capita income in the state is associated with biggies like C N Annadurai, T R Balu, R Venkataraman.
Dibrugarh (Assam)
Candidates’ Name-
- Sarbananda Sonowal (BJP)
- Lurinjyoti Gogoi (AJP)
- Dhanowar (AAP)
Union Minister and former CM Sarbananda Sonowal goes head-to-head with Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the face of Anti Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) movement in the state. In a seat that was a Congress bastion- till Sonowal, then with AGP breached it in 2004. The grand old party has stepped down aside for Lurinjyoti who, like Sonowal has cut his teeth in AASU.